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Fundamental concern

Description

Outlier (seasonal)

1980

Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt

2020 - COVID 19 pandemic crisis

Screenshot 2024-08-19 at 19.30.14.png

Open Interest

CFTC

https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

Eurex

https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/data/statistics/market-statistics-online

(Eurex is less useful. German companies use different ways to trade commodities or use international exchanges)

In a timeline chart you’d see changes (shifts) in how the producers / managed money / maybe even retailers position themselves.

Screenshot 2024-08-19 at 17.45.25.png

Code Block
Metrics for Open Interest:
Volatility (Standard Deviation): 15889.35
Average: 158040.03
Median: 157106.00
Minimum: 131956.00
Maximum: 186945.00
Typical Range: 146584.00 to 171371.00

Overall trend: Downward

Significant points:
Peak on 4: 166641.00
Peak on 12: 186945.00
Peak on 17: 175784.00
Peak on 26: 152544.00
Peak on 29: 138617.00
Trough on 6: 154724.00
Trough on 14: 161868.00
Trough on 23: 141026.00
Trough on 28: 136544.00
Trough on 30: 131956.00

Sudden changes (>5% day-to-day):
2024-07-16 00:00:00: 6.07% change
2024-07-02 00:00:00: -5.22% change
2024-06-25 00:00:00: 7.59% change
2024-06-18 00:00:00: 6.09% change
2024-05-14 00:00:00: -8.33% change
2024-05-07 00:00:00: -5.55% change
2024-04-23 00:00:00: 5.67% change
2024-03-12 00:00:00: -5.63% change
2024-01-30 00:00:00: -7.32% change

This would not suggest a buy / sell signal.
But this look bearish to me.

Committment of Traders

We assume the Silver market is known by producers.

Screenshot 2024-08-19 at 17.49.23.png

Code Block
Metrics for Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Longs:
Volatility (Standard Deviation): 1.36%
Average: 3.23%
Median: 3.00%
Minimum: 0.64%
Maximum: 7.14%
Typical Range: 2.37% to 3.78%

Metrics for Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Shorts:
Volatility (Standard Deviation): 3.96%
Average: 25.57%
Median: 25.32%
Minimum: 18.08%
Maximum: 32.77%
Typical Range: 22.26% to 28.93%

Correlation between Longs and Shorts: -0.22

Assumption: if a trend in 2024 is outside the typical range of 2023, we have a signal. The producers are the source of our signal. The trend is based on the statistics of the year before.

If you like, you can perform a Chart Analysis on the Open Interest as Volumne (with AmiBroker for example)

Screenshot 2024-08-19 at 18.11.11.png

The next logical question is: is there a seasonality in the Open Interest? Or in the supply and demand? It seems the Silver demand is going down since May 2024. There could be fundamental reasons, incl. seasonalities (elections etc.)

This would not suggest a buy / sell signal.

Looks neutral to me.

Seasonalities

Screenshot 2024-08-19 at 18.19.08.png

Screenshot 2024-08-20 at 07.55.28.pngImage Added

This would not suggest a buy / sell signal.

Looks bearish to me.

Inflation

We can take a look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the G20:

Screenshot 2024-08-19 at 18.30.43.png

This would not suggest a buy / sell signal.

Should be assessed with “News”.

News

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-16/latest-gold-prices--market-news-and-analysis-for-aug--16

Spot gold gained 2.1% to $2,508.82 an ounce as of 4:06 p.m. in New York. Silver and palladium advanced, while platinum was little-changed.

But:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-sachs-lowers-odds-us-recession-20-25-2024-08-19/

Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 20% from 25%

This would not suggest a buy / sell signal.

Looks neutral to me.

Reports (1)

(Larry Williams)

Looks bearish until Nov '24 to me. But ask Larry (smile)

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