This is educational content. It should not be used to contruct trades or to support financial decisions.
Code:
https://github.com/norandom/trading_analysis
ToC:
Silver
Fundamental concern | Description |
|---|---|
Outlier (seasonal) | 1980 Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt2020 - COVID 19 pandemic crisis  |
Open Interest | CFTC https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
Eurex https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/data/statistics/market-statistics-online(Eurex is less useful. German companies use different ways to trade commodities or use international exchanges) In a timeline chart you’d see changes (shifts) in how the producers / managed money / maybe even retailers position themselves. 
Metrics for Open Interest: Volatility (Standard Deviation): 15889.35 Average: 158040.03 Median: 157106.00 Minimum: 131956.00 Maximum: 186945.00 Typical Range: 146584.00 to 171371.00 Overall trend: Downward Significant points: Peak on 4: 166641.00 Peak on 12: 186945.00 Peak on 17: 175784.00 Peak on 26: 152544.00 Peak on 29: 138617.00 Trough on 6: 154724.00 Trough on 14: 161868.00 Trough on 23: 141026.00 Trough on 28: 136544.00 Trough on 30: 131956.00 Sudden changes (>5% day-to-day): 2024-07-16 00:00:00: 6.07% change 2024-07-02 00:00:00: -5.22% change 2024-06-25 00:00:00: 7.59% change 2024-06-18 00:00:00: 6.09% change 2024-05-14 00:00:00: -8.33% change 2024-05-07 00:00:00: -5.55% change 2024-04-23 00:00:00: 5.67% change 2024-03-12 00:00:00: -5.63% change 2024-01-30 00:00:00: -7.32% change This would not suggest a buy / sell signal. |
Committment of Traders | We assume the Silver market is known by producers.  Metrics for Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Longs: Volatility (Standard Deviation): 1.36% Average: 3.23% Median: 3.00% Minimum: 0.64% Maximum: 7.14% Typical Range: 2.37% to 3.78% Metrics for Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Shorts: Volatility (Standard Deviation): 3.96% Average: 25.57% Median: 25.32% Minimum: 18.08% Maximum: 32.77% Typical Range: 22.26% to 28.93% Correlation between Longs and Shorts: -0.22 Assumption: if a trend in 2024 is outside the typical range of 2023, we have a signal. The producers are the source of our signal. The trend is based on the statistics of the year before. If you like, you can perform a Chart Analysis on the Open Interest as Volumne (with AmiBroker for example)  The next logical question is: is there a seasonality in the Open Interest? Or in the supply and demand? It seems the Silver demand is going down since May 2024. There could be fundamental reasons, incl. seasonalities (elections etc.) This would not suggest a buy / sell signal. |
Seasonalities |  This would not suggest a buy / sell signal. |
Inflation | We can take a look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the G20:  This would not suggest a buy / sell signal. |
News | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-16/latest-gold-prices--market-news-and-analysis-for-aug--16
But: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-sachs-lowers-odds-us-recession-20-25-2024-08-19/
This would not suggest a buy / sell signal. |
Reports (1) (Larry Williams) | Looks bearish until Nov '24 to me. But ask Larry |
